Pre-tourney Rankings
American Athletic
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
15 Houston 100.0%   3   31 - 3 16 - 2 31 - 3 16 - 2 +15.8      +7.1 24 +8.8 15 65.9 258 +18.4 10 +17.5 1
32 Cincinnati 100.0%   7   28 - 6 14 - 4 28 - 6 14 - 4 +11.9      +5.3 44 +6.6 29 61.1 336 +14.9 21 +14.1 2
48 Central Florida 90.2%   9   23 - 8 13 - 5 23 - 8 13 - 5 +10.4      +4.4 63 +6.1 34 63.9 306 +10.9 42 +12.5 3
58 Memphis 6.6%   21 - 13 11 - 7 21 - 13 11 - 7 +8.3      +3.7 80 +4.6 63 83.8 5 +7.2 71 +7.9 5
70 Temple 55.3%   11   23 - 9 13 - 5 23 - 9 13 - 5 +7.1      +3.6 81 +3.5 83 71.2 113 +10.3 49 +11.9 4
88 Wichita St. 0.2%   19 - 14 10 - 8 19 - 14 10 - 8 +5.7      +1.7 126 +4.0 71 69.4 156 +6.3 83 +6.0 6
107 Connecticut 0.0%   16 - 17 6 - 12 16 - 17 6 - 12 +4.6      +3.2 90 +1.4 130 71.3 111 +2.9 128 +0.9 10
110 SMU 0.0%   15 - 17 6 - 12 15 - 17 6 - 12 +4.2      +5.6 40 -1.4 209 63.8 311 +2.1 137 +1.0 9
120 South Florida 0.0%   18 - 13 8 - 10 19 - 13 8 - 10 +3.6      -0.9 204 +4.6 64 68.1 195 +3.4 122 +3.5 8
121 Tulsa 0.0%   18 - 14 8 - 10 18 - 14 8 - 10 +3.6      +0.5 163 +3.1 92 70.8 123 +5.1 102 +3.9 7
261 East Carolina 0.0%   10 - 21 3 - 15 10 - 21 3 - 15 -5.8      -3.9 281 -2.0 228 70.3 135 -5.2 247 -4.8 11
282 Tulane 0.0%   4 - 27 0 - 18 4 - 27 0 - 18 -6.9      -4.8 296 -2.1 233 73.0 80 -11.0 324 -16.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Houston 1.0 100.0
Cincinnati 2.0 100.0
Central Florida 3.0 100.0
Memphis 5.0 100.0
Temple 3.0 100.0
Wichita St. 6.0 100.0
Connecticut 9.0 100.0
SMU 9.0 100.0
South Florida 7.0 100.0
Tulsa 7.0 100.0
East Carolina 11.0 100.0
Tulane 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Houston 16 - 2 100.0
Cincinnati 14 - 4 100.0
Central Florida 13 - 5 100.0
Memphis 11 - 7 100.0
Temple 13 - 5 100.0
Wichita St. 10 - 8 100.0
Connecticut 6 - 12 100.0
SMU 6 - 12 100.0
South Florida 8 - 10 100.0
Tulsa 8 - 10 100.0
East Carolina 3 - 15 100.0
Tulane 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Houston 100.0% 100.0
Cincinnati
Central Florida
Memphis
Temple
Wichita St.
Connecticut
SMU
South Florida
Tulsa
East Carolina
Tulane


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 3   5.8 24.6 46.6 22.0 1.1 0.0 100.0%
Cincinnati 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 7   0.2 2.7 19.5 41.1 35.8 0.6
Central Florida 90.2% 0.0% 90.2% 9   0.0 0.1 5.2 23.9 31.7 23.2 6.0 0.2 9.9 90.2%
Memphis 6.6% 0.0% 6.6% 0.8 5.5 0.2 0.0 93.4 6.6%
Temple 55.3% 0.0% 55.3% 11   0.3 2.6 11.3 29.6 11.4 0.0 44.7 55.3%
Wichita St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.4% 54.5% 23.0% 8.4% 2.8% 0.9%
Cincinnati 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 58.2% 18.7% 5.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Central Florida 90.2% 1.6% 89.5% 39.6% 6.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Memphis 6.6% 6.5% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Temple 55.3% 29.4% 38.1% 9.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wichita St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connecticut 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SMU 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulsa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Carolina 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tulane 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.5 3.7 43.5 49.8 3.1
1st Round 100.0% 3.3 5.7 59.1 34.3 0.9
2nd Round 97.5% 2.0 2.5 24.6 48.2 23.0 1.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 67.6% 0.8 32.4 54.6 12.4 0.6 0.0
Elite Eight 29.0% 0.3 71.0 27.6 1.4 0.0
Final Four 10.1% 0.1 89.9 10.0 0.0
Final Game 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Champion 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0